by Steve Bourie

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The Seminole Tribe of Florida has six casinos in the state: Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino-Tampa; Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino-Hollywood; Seminole Casino-Coconut Creek; SeminoleClassic Casino-Hollywood; Seminole Casino-Brighton; and Seminole Casino-Immokalee.

All of their casinos offer slot machines and five of them also offer blackjack, as well as other kinds of house-banked card games. According to the Miami Herald, it was estimated those casinosgenerated about $2.3 billion in profits in 2016 http://www.miamiherald.com/entertainment/article166085722.html. Since the average U.S. casino generates about 65% of its profits from its electronic gaming machines, it would be fair toestimate that the Tribe’s machines earn about $1.5 billion a year for them.

The only other competition for the Tribe’s casinos are the eight local pari-mutuels in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties which all offer slot machines, but are not allowed to offer live tablegames, such as blackjack. All of these pari-mutuel casinos, also known as racinos, are in competition with the Seminole’s three Broward county casinos, but the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel& Casino in Hollywood alone generates more profits than all eight of the racinos combined.

Florida gaming regulations require all of the pari-mutuel casinos to report how much their slot machines actually pay back to the public. This “Average Payout Percentage” information isavailable to the public and can be seen on the state’s website at http://www.myfloridalicense.com/dbpr/pmw in the “Slot Revenues” section. Additionally, each racino must post a sign in the casino showing the average monthly payback percentage forall of their gaming machines. Usually, the average for all of the casinos is around 92.5%

The Seminoles are not required to release information on the payout percentages for any of their casinos and they keep this information a closely guarded secret. They say that theirmachines pay out at a rate comparable to the pari-mutuels, but no one knows for sure, and the topic is sometimes a source of controversy.

If you read reviews of Seminole casinos on Yelp, Tripadvisor, or on our website at americancasinoguide.com you will see some reviewers say they believe the machines are set to around 60%, orlower. As someone who has written about casino gambling for more than 25 years, I know that isn’t true. The procedure for deciding what a slot machine is set to pay back to the public is rathersimple. When a casino orders a slot machine the manufacturer will offer them a choice of chips to put in the machine and that chip is what controls the long-term payback percentage in thatmachine. Generally, there are about six to eight different chips to choose from and the payback percentages can be as high as 98 percent to as low as 82 percent.

Casinos, almost universally, put the highest-paying chips in the highest denomination machines and the lowest-paying chips in the lowest denomination machines. This means that $25 slots willhave chips returning around 95-98 percent and the penny machines will have chips returning around 86-89 percent.

The lowest payback I ever heard of for a chip was about 80 percent, so I knew that the 60 percent number in the user reviews was not correct, but could there be some way to find out what themachines at the Seminole casinos really paid back to the public? After a lot of research, I believe that I have correctly calculated this information and what follows is my story of how I didit, plus a simple formula to show how anyone can do it. Additionally, we’ll take a look at the returns on some specific machines at some Seminole Casinos and see how they compare to the returnsat other casinos. Now, in order to start this discussion properly, you’ll first need some background information on how casinos work.

When discussing how casinos make money, it is important to know the term “theo,” which is short for theoretical. This is how a casino expects to make money on its games. It’s referred to as“theo” because it is a theoretical number that is not guaranteed. However, the casino knows that the longer you play, the more likely your loss will approach the theoretical win for thatparticular game.

As an example, if you play a slot machine that has a 10% theo, then the casino would expect to keep about 10% of all the money you play through that machine. So, if you played $1,000 throughthat slot machine, the casino would calculate its theoretical win as $100 because 10% of $1,000 is $100. Now, since this is gambling, anything can happen when you play that machine. You may win$600, or you may lose $400 and, actually, the casino itself doesn’t know what will happen. All they know is that as long as people continue to play that machine, the casino will end up keepingabout 10% of the money that goes through that machine because the machine has a “theo” of 10%.

In order for a casino to calculate your total theo for your visit, and what you are worth as a player to them, your play must be tracked and that is done by the player’s club at each casino.All casinos have a player’s club where visitors can join and have their play tracked on the machines in order to earn “comps” such as free food, free drinks, free shows, free gifts, invitationsto special events and more.

To track your play you are issued a card, similar to a magnetic-striped credit card, that is inserted into the machine and it will track your wins and losses, as well as the total amount of allyour bets. Naturally, the more you play on the machines, the more free stuff you will get from the casino. When deciding how much to give you back in benefits for your play, the casino mustfirst calculate your total theoretical loss to determine how much they have earned from you. Then, based on that total, they will rebate a certain percentage back to you in the form ofcomps and free play. The actual percentage rebated to the player is a trade secret for each casino but, again, it is always based on a player’s tracked theoretical loss.

I live only one mile from the Seminole Hard Rock Casino in Hollywood and I joined their Seminole Wild Card player’s club shortly after the property opened in 2004. Although I did not playmuch in the ensuing years, in late 2013 I began to play rather heavily and it continued through early 2017. My game of choice was video poker rather than slot machines because there is a skillinvolved in video poker and I used software to learn how to play my hands properly. Eventually, I played at an expert level that allowed the casino to have only a slight mathematical edge overme.

Overall, my results were pretty good as I hit quite a few royal flushes in 2016 and that helped me to come out ahead for my three years of play. In early 2017 the casino made some changes totheir video poker games, which made them less desirable, and I stopped playing. During my period of play I used that opportunity to analyze the Seminole Wild Card Player’s club and, following,is what I discovered.

The set-up of the Seminole Wild Card Player’s club is somewhat unusual because at most casinos when you play a machine you will earn points based on the total amount of money you put through amachine. On some machines it may be that $5 earns one point, while on other machines it may be $10 or $25 earns one point.

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The Seminole Wild Card Player’s club is different because players don’t earn points on each machine, instead they earn comp dollars. As an example, for playing $10 through one machine you mightearn six cents, while on another machine you might only earn three cents. So, if you ended up playing $1,000 for the day on the same machine, your comps would total $6 on the first machine, or$3 on the second machine. As a player, you wouldn't really know why one machine gave more comps, but you could correctly theorize that the machines that had a higher rate meant t

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